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Yemen - fear of failure 
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Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2002 3:17 am
Posts: 3009
Post Yemen - fear of failure
You can download the whole paper here:

http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/12 ... 8yemen.pdf

Published by the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London.

Quote:
# Yemen presents a potent combination of problems for policy-makers confronting the prospect of state failure in this strategically important Red Sea country. It is the poorest state in the Arab world, with high levels of unemployment, rapid population growth and dwindling water resources.
# President Saleh faces an intermittent civil war in the north, a southern separatist movement and resurgent terrorist groups. Yemen's jihadi networks appear to be growing as operating conditions in Iraq and Saudi Arabia become more difficult.
# The underlying drivers for future instability are economic. The state budget is heavily dependent on revenue from dwindling oil supplies. Yemen's window of opportunity to shape its own future and create a post-oil economy is narrowing.
# Western governments need to work towards an effective regional approach with the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council, in particular Saudi Arabia.
# Future instability in Yemen could expand a lawless zone stretching from northern Kenya, through Somalia and the Gulf of Aden, to Saudi Arabia. Piracy, organized crime and violent jihad would escalate, with implications for the security of shipping routes, the transit of oil through the Suez Canal and the internal security of Yemen's neighbours.

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Fri Nov 21, 2008 6:39 am
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Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2005 1:12 pm
Posts: 355
Post Re: Yemen - fear of failure
Osama,

First, I would not trust, too much, foreign-based research on the general situation of Yemen. There are always limitations to any method and coming up with such conclusion is merely based on inadequate fragile forecast done by academicians.

Second, we, Yemenis, know that there is a threat. We should evaluate ours. We should also balance between desired benefits for development, freedom and democracy and the cost for such change that could be massive and sometimes full of hazards.

We are passing through a critical stage, as we have been doing for the last 40 years but this time, I can not clear the name of opposition parties from the blame and shame. In their blind quest for power and with their irresponsible and irrational quest for the election, they do not realize that a lot of things might demise with their persistently ungrounded demands. No one can deny the critical stage we are passing through, nevertheless, their stance in fueling the separatism movement in the south, and their negative attitude from the president's order to stop the war in the north would lead to irretrievable damages that even them will not be able to fix if they came to power. Their role might contribute to a gloomier future.

We have to understand one thing.. The RESOURCES of Yemen is humble.. No government, no matter who they are, can achieve a desirable leap in the development of Yemen. The wheel should move forward though..The best thing we can do is to wait and support the Gov., for now, and highlight their pitfalls and be responsible when we oppose. Let's keep facts before our eyes and end targeting emotions. At the end, it is our country.


Sat Nov 22, 2008 12:31 am
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